Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.204622 0.245747 0.295039 0.359089 0.441017 0.543539 0.683515
2025-06-01 0.150051 0.196661 0.259044 0.350643 0.485215 0.681532 1.001178
2025-06-08 0.115484 0.162657 0.231938 0.345178 0.534103 0.853767 1.477831
2025-06-15 0.092557 0.138933 0.212983 0.346782 0.599479 1.097347 2.283589
2025-06-22 0.075537 0.119954 0.196421 0.348112 0.671261 1.415167 3.621878
2025-06-29 0.060275 0.100186 0.173288 0.330262 0.702100 1.690911 5.342450
2025-07-06 0.043835 0.074775 0.133496 0.265598 0.599240 1.570668 5.724520
2025-07-13 0.037246 0.066034 0.123681 0.262975 0.652274 1.967857 9.250434
2025-07-20 0.032923 0.060694 0.119443 0.272479 0.750053 2.665181 17.373901
2025-07-27 0.029682 0.056831 0.117443 0.287764 0.884324 3.777805 37.324942
2025-08-03 0.026638 0.052735 0.113875 0.298032 1.017940 5.252321 84.875160
2025-08-10 0.023371 0.047484 0.106152 0.292993 1.093081 6.670388 179.329697
2025-08-17 0.020092 0.041797 0.096467 0.279869 1.137163 8.240728 409.455261
2025-08-24 0.018037 0.038595 0.092598 0.285783 1.295679 11.889404 1712.235515
2025-08-31 0.016278 0.035768 0.089045 0.291891 1.478737 17.582174 13476.766672
2025-09-07 0.014866 0.033536 0.086648 0.302181 1.723706 27.736411 876340.714642
2025-09-14 0.013598 0.031429 0.084070 0.311035 1.996080 44.734001 NaN
2025-09-21 0.012137 0.028526 0.078177 0.301652 2.111306 61.789862 NaN
2025-09-28 0.010049 0.023578 0.064459 0.247660 1.718003 48.868492 NaN
2025-10-05 0.009224 0.022030 0.061814 0.248611 1.900261 74.638134 NaN
2025-10-12 0.008670 0.021151 0.061229 0.260428 2.251171 139.748765 NaN
2025-10-19 0.008236 0.020539 0.061445 0.277526 2.753352 309.486995 NaN
2025-10-26 0.007769 0.019745 0.060790 0.289652 3.266061 705.604478 NaN